South Africa’s top court ruled Monday that Jacob Zuma, the controversial former president turned opposition leader, cannot run for parliament in next week’s general election.
The ruling is likely to provoke outrage among Zuma’s supporters and raise concerns about potential unrest as the country heads toward the highly contested May 29 election. The decision upheld the electoral commission’s stance that a prior conviction for contempt of court disqualifies Zuma from becoming an MP, as the constitution bars anyone sentenced to more than 12 months in jail.
Court Ruling Explained
Zuma, who stepped down in 2018 amidst corruption scandals, was sentenced to 15 months in jail in 2021 for contempt of court. Although he served less than three months, the court deemed this remission irrelevant. Justice Leona Theron stated, “This court concludes that Mr. Zuma was convicted of an offence and sentenced to more than 12 months imprisonment… and is accordingly not eligible to be a member of and not qualified to stand for election to the national assembly.”
Implications for Zuma’s Political Aspirations
After a general election in South Africa, the president is chosen by MPs. Thus, if Zuma is barred from running, he cannot become president even if his new party secures enough seats. His supporters, some clad in military fatigues of his uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, remain determined to win enough seats to amend the constitution.
Reaction from Supporters and Opponents
Despite Zuma’s significant rally in Soweto, opinion polls indicate his party might struggle outside his home province, KwaZulu-Natal. MK party member Lindiwe Mtshali, expressing disappointment, stated, “There is an agenda to delay the liberation of black people in this country,” but remained confident in their campaign.
Outside the court, Neeshan Balton from the Ahmed Kathrada Foundation, which participated in the case, welcomed the ruling. “It reaffirms that candidates must pledge to uphold the constitution. The former president clearly was not going to, and we are happy that he’s disqualified,” he said.
Zuma’s Legal Battles and Political Strategy
Zuma has faced numerous legal challenges since leaving office. He founded the MK party to contest next week’s election, aiming to disrupt the dominance of Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled since 1994. Zuma’s era as president is often associated with widespread corruption, impacting his legacy.
Election Dynamics and Potential Unrest
The ANC has historically been the primary political force in South Africa, but corruption allegations and issues like high crime and unemployment rates have affected its popularity. The party still commands significant loyalty due to its historical role and extensive social welfare programs.
If Zuma’s campaign erodes the ANC’s support, Ramaphosa may need to form a coalition to stay in power. However, striking Zuma from the ballot might incite unrest, reminiscent of the deadly riots following his 2021 imprisonment.
South Africa’s Independent Electoral Commission confirmed that ballots already printed with Zuma’s image will remain, but he will be ineligible to serve as an MP.
As South Africa approaches a pivotal election, the political landscape is fraught with tension, reflecting the country’s complex journey from apartheid to its current challenges.
