Trump’s Proposed Mass Deportation Faces Major Challenges
Donald Trump has made a bold promise: on his first day back in office, he plans to initiate the largest deportation effort targeting undocumented immigrants in U.S. history. Yet, carrying out such an operation involves complex hurdles.
“Rhetoric is one thing,” said Stephen Yale-Loehr, a Cornell professor specializing in immigration law. “Actually implementing it is another.” According to Yale-Loehr, everyone in the country — not just citizens — has constitutional protections, meaning Trump can’t simply order mass deportations without due process. Currently, immigration courts are overwhelmed, with a backlog of over 3.6 million cases.
Beyond legal constraints, mass deportation would require significant resources, posing logistical and financial challenges.
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, a senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, estimates there are 13 to 15 million undocumented immigrants in the U.S., making such an effort immensely complex. “While a president can push for stronger immigration enforcement, our country lacks the capability to detain and deport millions,” he explained. Achieving this would demand tens of thousands of new agents, hundreds of detention centers, and additional courtrooms.
Moreover, Congress would need to approve a substantial budget for this initiative, likely costing tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars.
Economic Impact
Removing millions of workers from the economy could also have severe economic repercussions, especially in industries like construction, agriculture, and hospitality. “Undocumented immigrants are essential to these sectors,” Reichlin-Melnick noted. “If they’re forced out, it would trigger major labor shortages, potentially driving up inflation and raising the cost of goods.”
A study from the American Immigration Council indicates that mass deportation could shrink the U.S. economy by 4.2 to 6.8 percent, reducing tax revenue at all levels of government. For context, the Great Recession saw a GDP decline of 4.3 percent, during which 15 million Americans lost their jobs. The economic strain from mass deportations could bring similar disruptions.
Immigration Restrictions Expected
Reichlin-Melnick anticipates that if Trump returns to office, his administration would prioritize restrictions on legal immigration. “In his first term, Trump enacted a travel ban targeting several Muslim-majority countries, and we could see similar visa restrictions again,” he suggested.
Trump also plans to end a recent humanitarian entry program allowing citizens from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela to settle legally in the U.S. “And as we saw before, his administration could move swiftly to revoke legal protections from hundreds of thousands of immigrants,” Reichlin-Melnick added.
Additionally, Trump has proposed involving American troops more heavily in border enforcement, alongside his goal to complete the border wall.
