South Africa’s ruling ANC is on the hunt for coalition partners to form a new government after losing its three-decade-long absolute majority in a pivotal election.
With 99 percent of votes counted from Wednesday’s election, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s African National Congress secured just 40 percent, a significant drop from the 57.5 percent it garnered in 2019. This marks a historic shift for South Africa, as the ANC has held an absolute majority since 1994, when Nelson Mandela led the country out of apartheid and into democracy.
The ANC now faces the task of negotiating a coalition government or convincing other parties to support Ramaphosa’s re-election in parliament, allowing him to lead a minority government that would need backing from other parties to pass budgets and legislation.
“We have been talking with everybody even before the election,” said ANC’s deputy secretary general Nomvula Mokonyane. She noted that the party’s decision-making body, the NEC, would meet to decide on the next steps once the final results are in. “It’s about ensuring stability both in government and in our country,” she added, dismissing any immediate plans to replace Ramaphosa despite the party’s poor showing.
As the vote count continues, data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) shows the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) in second place with 21.71 percent, up slightly from 20.77 percent in 2019. The DA, which governs Western Cape province, promotes a free-market agenda that contrasts with the ANC’s left-wing traditions.
When asked about a potential coalition with the ANC, DA party chairwoman Helen Zille said, “Negotiations haven’t started, but some channels have been opened, individuals talking to individuals.” She also mentioned the possibility of allowing the ANC to attempt to rule alone, saying, “A minority government would be something completely new in South Africa, but it is an option among others.”
Interestingly, it wasn’t a surge by the DA that dented the ANC’s vote share. In third place is former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party with 12.6 percent, a surprising result for a party founded just months ago. The radical leftist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) follow in fourth with 9.4 percent.
Some observers suggest that former ANC members like Malema and Zuma could be more natural partners for the ruling coalition, a scenario the DA has dubbed the “Doomsday Coalition.” However, analysts like author Susan Booysen argue that the EFF’s demands are perceived as “too erratic” and “unpredictable.” Furthermore, the deep rift between Ramaphosa and Zuma—who remains bitter over his 2018 ousting—seems too wide to bridge.
MK spokesman Nhlamulo Ndhlela indicated a willingness to engage with the ANC, but not under Ramaphosa’s leadership. He stated that any coalition partner should be ready to amend the constitution for radical reforms and grant Zuma a pardon for his contempt of court conviction.
Despite its challenges, the ANC still commands loyalty from many voters due to its role in ending apartheid and its progressive social welfare and black economic empowerment policies, which supporters credit with lifting millions of black families out of poverty. However, three decades of nearly unchallenged rule have seen the ANC’s leadership implicated in numerous corruption scandals, while the economy has struggled, and crime and unemployment have soared.
