As Americans gear up to cast their votes on Election Day Tuesday, officials are urging patience as they begin the process of tallying ballots. This year’s presidential race is shaping up to be historically close, and it may take several days to determine the winner.
In the US electoral system, citizens do not vote directly for their president; instead, they elect members of the Electoral College, which consists of 538 representatives. Each state’s Electoral College votes are allocated based on the popular vote within that state, with larger states holding more sway due to their greater representation in Congress.
Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump are both aiming for at least 270 Electoral College votes, the magic number needed to secure victory and gain access to the Oval Office. However, experts warn that this year’s tight race could lead to complications, including potential legal challenges that might delay the counting process.
By the time polls open on Tuesday, around 81 million people will have already voted, representing over half of the total votes cast in 2020.
How Long Will the Counting Take?
Polling places will start closing at 6:00 PM Eastern Time (2300 GMT), but in a closely contested election, it could be days before a winner is officially announced. For instance, in 2020, media outlets declared Joe Biden the winner on Saturday, November 7, despite polls closing the previous Tuesday.
In contrast, the outcomes of the 2016 and 2012 elections were determined in a much shorter timeframe. After the votes are cast, local election officials are responsible for processing and counting them, using methods that can vary significantly by location. Many states have enacted laws that allow mail-in and overseas ballots to be prepared for counting prior to Election Day. However, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not implemented such changes, which may hinder the counting process, especially in these critical battleground states where mail-in ballots can only be processed starting November 5.
Tight races can also trigger recounts if the margins are extremely close.
Who Certifies the Results?
While US news outlets may call races based on their analysis of the voting data, these calls are not official. The results must still be certified at the state level, ensuring that every ballot is accounted for. States have until December 11 to certify their results, and then their designated electors will cast their votes based on the popular vote outcome. By December 25, these electoral certificates must be submitted to the President of the Senate, who is also Vice President Harris.
Congress will count and confirm the results on January 6, and the new president will be inaugurated on January 20.
What Could Cause Delays?
Although certification is a procedural formality, experts have raised concerns about potential obstructions. A report from Brookings highlights that at least 22 county election officials in battleground states voted in 2022 to delay certification, marking a nearly 30% increase compared to 2020.
Additionally, at least 35 election officials have refused to certify election results and may do so again. These actions could complicate state and federal certification timelines, as noted by the advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).
The certification process has become increasingly politicized, especially following former President Trump’s refusal to concede the 2020 election. In that election cycle, numerous legal challenges brought forth by Trump and his allies were dismissed by the courts. This year, a wave of lawsuits from both parties could further complicate the counting and certification processes as the nation heads into a pivotal Election Day.
