Vice President Kamala Harris has taken a slight lead over Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s decision to step aside and endorse her. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Monday and Tuesday, Harris leads Trump 44% to 42%. This is a shift from the previous poll where Biden trailed Trump by two points.
The poll was taken shortly after the Republican National Convention, where Trump formally accepted the nomination, and Biden’s announcement that he would not seek re-election, passing the torch to Harris. Harris, who has secured the Democratic nomination, now leads within the poll’s 3-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris and Trump were tied at 44% in mid-July, with Trump holding a slight lead in early July, both results falling within the margin of error.
National polls provide insight into candidate support, but the U.S. Electoral College, influenced by a few competitive states, ultimately decides the election. A pollster from Trump’s campaign downplayed Harris’s increase in support, attributing it to a temporary bump from the media coverage of her new candidacy.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights the reasoning behind Biden’s decision to withdraw and support Harris. Harris is viewed as more mentally sharp and capable of handling challenges, with 56% of registered voters agreeing with this statement, compared to 49% for Trump and only 22% for Biden.
Biden ended his re-election bid after a debate with Trump where he struggled to counter Trump’s attacks. Harris enjoys a higher favorability among Democratic voters, with 91% viewing her favorably compared to 80% for Biden. Most Democratic voters believe the party should unite behind Harris rather than having multiple candidates compete for the nomination.
In a hypothetical ballot including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%. Kennedy, favored by 8% of voters, has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states.
Harris campaigned in Wisconsin, a crucial battleground state, on Tuesday. Attention is now turning to her choice of running mate. Many voters are unfamiliar with potential candidates such as U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The poll, conducted online, surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults, including 1,018 registered voters.
