Senate Democrats are preparing to play defense in 2024 in order to maintain their slim majority in the upper chamber.
The party is defending more seats than Republicans, and it is already facing the possibility of some incumbents retiring, leaving open competitive seats.
Democrats also have few opportunities to go on the offensive. Their top targets appear to be Florida and Texas, but both have proven difficult for Democrats to win in recent years.
Here are eight Senate seats most likely to flip in 2024:
West Virginia
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) won reelection by a narrow 3-point margin, preserving a seat for Democrats in an otherwise red state.
But, given West Virginia’s conservative political makeup, even a moderate like Manchin is vulnerable. Trump carried the state by nearly 40 points in 2020, while Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R) won by an even larger margin, 43 points.
Furthermore, many Democrats believe Manchin is the only Senate candidate in West Virginia who can defeat a Republican, and he has not yet committed to running for re-election. If he decides to retire from the Senate, Democrats will almost certainly lose the seat.
Montana
Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) narrowly defeated Republican Matt Rosendale by a 3.5-point margin in 2018.
However, unlike in 2018, when a blue wave helped Democrats gain control of the House, Democrats face a more difficult political landscape in 2024. Not only will they be defending more Senate seats than Republicans, but they will almost certainly be on the ballot alongside President Biden, whose approval rating remains relatively low.
Montana, on the other hand, isn’t exactly a swing state. In 2020, former President Trump carried it by more than 16 points, while Sen. Steve Daines (R) was re-elected by a 10-point margin.
There’s also the fact that Tester has yet to commit to running for re-election to the Senate. If he decides to resign, Democrats will be without a battle-tested incumbent who they believe has the best chance of retaining the seat.
Arizona
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) left the Democratic Party last year to become an Independent, and potential Democratic challengers, including Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), is eyeing her seat.
It’s not an ideal situation for Democrats to be in as they try to hold off Republicans in a state that has only recently emerged as a battleground.
In recent years, the party has capitalized on appealing to both moderates and liberals in the state, and there is some concern that the presence of both Sinema and a Democrat in the race will divide that vote. Of course, Arizona Republicans face their own set of difficulties. The party is divided about its future, especially after a disappointing midterm election cycle in 2022. Former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, one of their strongest potential recruits, has stated that he is not considering a Senate run.
Nevada
The 2022 Senate race in Nevada was one of the most heated of the midterm elections last year. Senator Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) was re-elected but by a margin of fewer than 8,000 votes.
Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) isn’t expected to have it any easier in 2024. Nevada is a perennial battleground, and Republicans are expected to campaign aggressively in the state once again, especially given how close the race was last year.
It will also be Rosen’s first reelection bid, and the political environment will be very different from the one she ran in during her 2018 campaign when she defeated former Sen. Dean Heller (R).
Nevada is already one of the GOP’s best pickup opportunities for 2024.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s midterm elections in 2022 did not go as Republicans had hoped. Their Trump-backed Senate nominee, Mehmet Oz, was defeated by Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), and Democrats retained control of the governor’s mansion.
However, new challenges await in 2024. Despite the fact that Fetterman won his race last year, Democrats and many Republicans believe Oz was a particularly weak candidate. There’s also the fact that Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) was recently diagnosed with prostate cancer, raising concerns about his reelection bid in 2024.
Casey has stated that he has an “excellent prognosis,” and he is expected to run for reelection. Nonetheless, Republicans are hoping to field a stronger challenger the next time around in order to avoid a repeat of the 2022 election.
Michigan
Just a few weeks ago, Democrats appeared to be on the verge of winning the Michigan Senate seat in 2024.
However, Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s (D-Mich.) announcement earlier this month that she would not seek reelection in 2024 threw the party’s calculations into disarray and provided Republicans with a golden opportunity to take on an open Democratic seat.
So far, no Democrat has stepped forward to replace Stabenow, though several are considering runs, including Reps. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Debbie Dingell (Ind.) (Mich.). Other prominent Democrats, including Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, have already ruled out a Senate run.
The uncertainty surrounding Stabenow’s impending retirement sets the stage for a potentially lengthy and competitive Democratic primary, complicating the party’s hopes of retaining the seat next year.
Republicans, on the other hand, have yet to choose a candidate. What is clear is that this election is shaping up to be one of the most contentious in the country.
Wisconsin
Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) hasn’t said whether she’ll run for reelection next year, but even if she does, she’ll be in one of the most closely-watched Senate races in 2024.
Democrats are eager to persuade Baldwin to run for Senate again. After all, she’s won by wide margins twice before. In 2012, nearly 6 percentage points were gained, and more than 10 points were gained in 2018.
Nonetheless, Wisconsin remains a critical battleground state with a proclivity to swing wildly from election to election.
After Trump narrowly won it in 2016, Biden carried it by less than a percentage point in 2020. Last year, Wisconsin voters re-elected Sen. Ron Johnson (R) to a second term in the Senate, electing a Trump ally over now-former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
Ohio
Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) won reelection in 2018, giving Democrats a key victory in a former swing state that has shifted further to the right in recent years.
The big question, of course, is whether Brown can do it again. Trump won the state in 2016 and will do so again in 2020. And former Rep. Tim Ryan (D) lost a Senate bid in Ohio last year, exacerbating Democrats’ woes in the state.
Democrats claim Brown has a unique ability to speak to working-class voters and a track record of resonating in an increasingly red state.
Republicans are expected to fight hard for the seat next year. Again, Biden will almost certainly be on the ballot, making it more difficult for Brown to run an independent campaign.
