The tensest political contest of the year, the 2022 midterm elections, will be decided by the votes cast by voters on Tuesday. Others predict the Republicans will gain a majority in both the Senate and the House, despite the fact that some political insiders are split on the subject.
As voters in states around the nation, both Republican and Democrat, complete their choices for who they believe will best serve their interests in Congress, political professionals from both sides of the aisle gave Fox News Digital their predictions before Election Day.
The Senate is still up for grabs. According to Fox News Power Rankings, the Democrats will win 47 seats and the Republicans will win 49, leaving Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as the four deciding toss-up races for the Senate.
Republicans are predicted by the Fox News Power Rankings to take control of the House with a 19-seat advantage, or 236 total seats. Compared to how many seats they now possess in Congress, that is a gain of 23 seats.
Josh Kraushaar: Democrats have a “fighting chance” to win several Senate elections, but the party will lose the majority in the House.
“It’s tough to see how Democrats maintain their slim House majority given the extent to which they are playing defense in blue areas.
Republicans maintain favorable odds to gain the one seat required to retake the majority, despite Democrats having a chance to win some close Senate seats. To gain more than two seats, though, would require a significant Republican surge.
“Headed to a runoff in Georgia and Louisiana,” says Chuck Rocha.
“In the United States House, I think it’s a much different story. The House party committee and their Super PAC, along with their campaign, have not run a good midterm strategy. Of the 30 most vulnerable marginal Democratic seats, half of them have large Latino populations, and NONE of these campaigns [have a statewide Latino strategy].
“We Lose: TX-15 – 74% Hispanic, AZ-6 20%, FL-27 68%, CO-08 30%, TX-28 76%, NV-03 18%, NV-02 15%, OR-05 10% and so on…”
Scott Rasmussen: Republicans take Senate, Democrats lose House majority
“Republicans gain 30 seats in the House and 53 seats in the Senate. At least one unexpected victory in a governor’s campaign.”
Emily Ekins: “There may be more of a red wave this year than we think”
Eighty percent of Americans believe that we are currently in a recession or will enter one within the next year. Economic pessimism, along with high inflation, high gas prices, and high-interest rates, is hurting Democrats and giving an advantage to Republicans. “The midterm elections look very different now than they did two weeks ago with Senate races tightening throughout the country and Republicans taking the lead.”
“I anticipate Republicans to win the House and the Senate currently, though the Senate seat margin may be narrowly based on polling models. More Americans want Republicans to take control of the Senate than are voting for their state’s Republican senator candidate, according to polls in crucial Senate contests. This means that in several crucial contests, Republicans are fielding weaker candidates. Democrats have benefited from the Roe decision as well, but it doesn’t appear to have allayed voters’ worries about inflation.”
“There is a chance that surveys will underestimate Republican support once more. There are some indicators of non-response bias, most notably the fact that Democrats are more eager to participate in polls in some important states. Therefore, this year’s red wave may be more prevalent than we realize.”
Kevin Walling: Democrats are “going to have a good night”
I think Team Blue is actually going to have a good night, bucking historic midterm trends in a number of key races… I think Lt. Governor [John] Fetterman will flip the Pennsylvania seat, along with Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio… Sen. [Mark] Kelly will hold his seat in Arizona… Sen. [Maggie] Hassan will secure another term representing New Hampshire… Sen. [Catherine] Cortez Masto will hang on in Nevada…
“For the first time in eight years, Democrats will retain their governorships in Pennsylvania, Kansas, Michigan, Maine, Nevada, New York, and Illinois and win both Maryland and Massachusetts. We’ll probably fall short in Florida, Texas, and Georgia, in my opinion. By winning about a dozen seats, Kevin McCarthy would finally fulfill his ambition of becoming Speaker of the House.”
Tony Sayegh: Democrats will “pay a heavy political price” in midterms
“A red wave was anticipated at the beginning of the year. Though Republicans started the autumn campaign season with signs of strength as Americans refocused on the economy, crime, and immigration, the summer brought fears of a red wave. Republicans discussed matters that were important to voters, while Democrats discussed issues that were important to them. And because they are so out of touch, they will pay a high electoral price in the midterm elections.”
“Republicans in the House might pick up over 250 seats, giving Kevin McCarthy a commanding majority. In typically blue states like New York and California, watch for Republican pick-ups that are planned.”
“Republicans are almost certain to take over the Senate. Democrats face a serious threat of losing Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona.”
“But the most compelling gubernatorial elections throughout the nation may be the best predictor of what might ultimately be a red tsunami. Republicans would be severely rebuked by Democrats if they won the governorships of New York, Michigan, Connecticut, or Oregon.”
Democratic House candidates “could surprise a lot of people,” according to Jonathan Kott.
“Despite historical trends, I believe Democrats will have a successful evening. The House will be competitive, but moderate Democrats are running competitive campaigns and may take everyone by surprise. In the Senate, Tim Ryan has run the greatest campaign of any candidate this year, and I still think he will win because he is the most sincere contender. The same is true for John Fetterman, who will succeed with the aid of Josh Shapiro. The other races are evenly matched.”
“The only thing I know for sure is that every Democrat will be eating peaches in Georgia in December,” said the speaker.
Walker defeats Warnock in Georgia, while Kemp holds off Abrams.
“I estimate that Herschel Walker will defeat Raphael Warnock by AT LEAST 85,000 votes, or around 1.5 points, in the absence of CTCL’s financially supported Georgia GOTV campaign. I don’t think a runoff will be held in this race. Remember that if Doug Collins hadn’t split the Republican vote with Kelly Loeffler, Warnock would have likely lost in the first round of the 2020 Nov. 3 Senate Election.”
Kemp will undoubtedly defeat Stacey Abrams by at least 8 points, and it is difficult to conceive that there are enough ticket splitters in Georgia to swing the election in Warnock’s favor.
With 50 seats under their party’s control, Democrats presently command a razor-thin majority in the upper chamber. Democrats just need 50 seats to stay in power since vice president Kamala Harris has the power to break ties.
It is yet unclear whether the outcomes of Tuesday’s midterm elections will represent a critique of President Biden and the Democratic policies that have been put in place over the previous two years.
